When the lights went out last Sunday night at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, the Buffalo Bills and their bigger-than-life Quarterback, Josh Allen, had ended the Kansas City Chiefs undefeated season 30-21. In fact, the Bills’ 30 points also ended the Chiefs’ impressive streak of holding opponents to 28 points or less in 38 regular season games.
How the Bills eclipsed the 28 point threshold is worth a review. Buffalo was on top 23-21 and facing a 4th and 2 on the Chiefs 26 yard-line with 2:17 left in the game. Said Tony Romo in the CBS booth, “You’ve got to go win this game. You can’t play conservative and give Patrick Mahomes a chance to beat you.” Indeed.
Bills coach Sean McDermott was of the same mindset. He kept Josh Allen and the offense on the field rather than take the 44 yard field goal and a mere 5 point lead into the final two minutes with Mahomes in possession of the football.
NFL Play of the Year!
The 4th down play called in the huddle was a pass out of the shotgun, with Allen reading the progression left to right. From the snap he was electric, making a pump fake to his left and immediately stepping up in the pocket and accelerating to his right. Then boom, he was gone! He left two would-be tacklers juked to the ground around the line of scrimmage, and he broke through two more arm tackles on his way to barreling over safety Bryan Cook into the end zone. A twenty-six yard touchdown and a two-score lead. Mahomes and the Chiefs were toast. Jim Nance shouted over the roar of the Buffalo fans it was, “…the play of the year in the NFL!”
No one could argue. Josh Allen had put this game on his back and led two 4th quarter scoring drives, both of which were over 60 yards and 10+ plays. In the final tally Josh completed 27 of 40 for 262 yards and a TD pass, plus another 55 yards rushing, including the clinching 26 yard scramble. Josh Allen is hungry… he wants to be fed.
Said a defeated but classy Patrick Mahomes to Allen on the field following the game, “We’ll do it again, baby.” And surely they will.
So How Did They Get Here?
Patrick was drafted in the first round (#10) out of Texas Tech in 2017 and watched and learned for one year behind the Chiefs incumbent, Alex Smith. He was named the starter in 2018 following Smith’s trade to the Washington football team. All Patrick would do in his first year as starter was pass for 5,097 yards and 50 TDs against only 12 pics. Yikes.
This made Patrick the first Quarterback in history to pass for over 5,000 yards in a single season in both college and the NFL. Moreover, he joined Peyton Manning as the only players in NFL history to pass for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs in the same season.
Josh was also drafted in the first round (#7) by Buffalo in 2018. His growth would be a bit slower than Patrick’s, but in 2020 he led the Bills to a 13-3 record while completing 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards and 37 TDs vs 10 pics, and he added 421 yards and 8 TDs rushing. They have both been elite Quarterbacks since those breakthrough seasons.
The Best QB in 2024?
NFL pundits are always asking and debating who is the best Quarterback in the league. Who is that one guy you want to build around? Who is taking you to the Super Bowl? The QB Power Ratings change every week. It seemed to be a pretty clear choice a few years ago when Tom Brady was winning his way to seven Super Bowl Championships (six with the Pats and his grand finale with the Bucs). But the truth is, the best Quarterback in any given year is a product of personal performance, plus what I call “situational variables” that determine his success.
Situational Variable: Supporting Cast
Which Quarterback has the best supporting cast of receivers? Starting in 2024 you might have said Brock Purdy and the 49ers with Christian McCaffery (67 receptions), Brandon Aiyuk (75 receptions), Deebo Samuel (60 receptions) and TE George Kittle (65 receptions). That’s a lot of talent surrounding your QB. Unfortunately for the 49ers, injury (McCaffery and Samuel) and contract issues (Aiyuk) put a real negative spin on their supporting cast variable. That’s why it’s called a variable! You never know.
You would not have listed Buffalo nor Kansas City in the top 15 of supporting cast variables. Which means their respective QBs needed to cover these weaknesses.
How about the best offensive line? Can’t win without the big guys, right? Well, the Sharpe Football Preview Book had the Lions offensive line ranked first and the Falcons second to start 2024. The Chiefs? Excellent at #5. And the Bills? Well, not so good at #22. Josh has legs, right? Plus he can take a hit. I’m not sure Brock Purdy would hold up for 17 games behind Buffalo’s OL. FYI Brock, in fact, is out this weekend with a bruised throwing shoulder.
Situational Variable: Team Defense
How about your defense? It’s a huge factor that contributes to the success of Quarterbacks. Is your defense keeping you in games? Is your defense forcing turnovers and providing great field position for the offense? Can the defense bail you out after a turnover? All big factors.
In 2024 the Eagles are currently ranked #1 in total defense (273.1 yards allowed per game) and #6 in scoring defense (17.9 points per game). The Chiefs have been winning Super Bowls with a great defense and are currently ranked at # 5 in total defense (297.1 yards per) and #8 in scoring defense (19.1 pts per game). Exceptional.
The Bills? Meh; #16 in total yards (329.1 yards per) but right behind the Chiefs at #9 in scoring defense (19.5 pts per). Above average.
Situational Variable: Endurance. Does your QB Show Up?
A final variable to consider is QB endurance. Availability. Is your QB healthy? Does he play hurt? Can he make it through the grinding 17 game schedule plus the playoffs?
Josh Allen holds the NFL’s current active streak of consecutive games with 88. Jared Goff is second at 35. Both Allen and Goff are the only two QBs to start every regular season game in 2022 and 2023. But give Patrick Mahomes an asterisk as he started all 17 in 2021 and 2022. In 2023 he sat out the final regular season game after the Chiefs had clinched the playoffs. But so did Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy. In this category Mahomes and Allen are both exceptional.
Just FYI Brett Favre holds the all-time record for most consecutive starts in the NFL at 321, including regular season and playoffs. It will never be surpassed.
So Who is THE “Go-To” Quarterback in 2024?
There are strong cases to be made by Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow, but I’m narrowing this conversation down to Patrick and Josh. Why?
You cannot leave out a three-time Super Bowl winner who has his team at 9-1 and in a position for the first three-peat Super Bowl win streak ever. Nor should you omit the guy at 9-2 who just beat Mahomes for the league leading 4th time.
Patrick’s Argument:
Mahomes is the winner of the past two Super Bowls and both MVP awards. He wins with a flair for the dramatic, which includes no-look passes and behind-the-back completions. He extends plays off platform and threads tight windows. He plays his best on the biggest stages. He’s been performing at an elite level since becoming a starter in his second year in 2018.
Josh’s Case:
Allen is a bigger-than-life presence on the field. At times he seems greater than his 6’5” frame and his 237 pounds when he’s barreling downfield in 4.75 forty mode. Josh has been elite since 2020, but there is more to him this year. He’s playing within himself. He’s protecting the football. He’s making people around him better. In the 4th quarter, you want the ball in his hands.
How Close is it Between Mahomes and Allen?
In their NFL careers Patrick has started 106 games and Josh 105 games. Can’t get a much closer data set. Mahomes’ record is 83-23 and Allen is at 73-32.
Patrick has 234 TD passes while Josh has posted 185. BUT, Allen has added an additional 58 rushing TDs to Mahomes’ 13. So total touchdown responsibility has Mahomes at 247 and Allen at 243. Very cool.
Patrick has had the better supporting cast and the better defense. Josh needs to do a little more with a little less.
The Head-to-Head Story
Beating Patrick Mahomes is a rare occurrence for most NFL Quarterbacks. In fact, with his win on Sunday Josh Allen is now 4-1 vs Mahomes in the regular season. He is now the only QB to beat Mahomes four times. The rub for Josh is that their total head-to-head record counting regular season and playoffs is 4-4. Ergo Patrick is 3-0 vs Josh in the post-season. Oops, that’s gotta hurt. But it’s not as dominating for Mahomes as it reads.
The three playoff games have been very competitive even with the Chiefs prevailing in all three. The 2021 AFC Championship game was easily the most exciting. In the final two minutes the game had four lead changes and 25 points scored. Josh Allen engineered two go-ahead touchdown drives in the final two minutes only to have the Chiefs kick a tying FG as time expired. .
Patrick Mahomes drove the Chiefs down the field on their first possession in OT and pitched the wining touchdown pass 8 yards to Travis Kelce to win the game. Josh Allen never got on the field in OT, but he did complete 27 of 37 for 329 yards and 4 TD passes. His performance achieved the highest passer rating in NFL post season history at 149.0 exceeding Joe Montana’s 144.0 mark from 1989. And his team lost.
“We’ll Do It Again, Baby”
In 2024 the Chiefs and Bills continue the NFL’s best current team rivalry with Mahomes and Allen as the best QB matchup. It would seem they are both on a trajectory to meet again in the AFC Conference Championship. Kansas City still has the Chargers, Steelers, Broncos and Texans with winning records on the schedule. The Bills’ path would seem a bit easier with the 49ers and Lions as the only formidable teams left and three combined games against the Jets and Patriots (both 3-8).
My pick for the NFL’s best Quarterback in 2024 is Josh Allen. His team is not as loaded with talent as Kansas City but Mahomes and company are in a bit of an offensive funk (for them). Patrick’s 15 TD passes and 11 picks is uncharacteristically pedestrian. His late game magic has had to work overtime and a team can’t rely on fourth quarter bailouts forever.
On the other hand, Josh seems to finally understand he can’t do it all on every possession. He’s learning to distribute the responsibility of winning across all of his supporting cast. He is still spectacular, but taking less risks with the football. Josh still holds the NFL rookie combine record of a 62 mph velocity on his passes (Mahomes registered 60 mph) and for the first six years in the league he tested it by rocketing into tight windows. Sometimes the glass shattered. In 2024 there seems to be a decision-making maturity that has elevated Josh Allen’s game to an MVP level.
After just knocking off the reigning Super Bowl Champions last Sunday, the Bills have the # 1 “Mo” team in the league right now. Given the soft remaining schedule I don’t see Buffalo losing that karma. I see the ball bouncing Josh Allen’s way and all the way to the Super Bowl.