Winning the Super Bowl and the Lombardi Trophy is the ultimate goal for every NFL team.
The most critical bridge on the road to that achievement is the acquisition, development, and retention of a Super Bowl-level Quarterback.
These are the facts: there have been 67 different players start at Quarterback in a Super Bowl and 34 of them were first round draft choices. Thirteen of the 34 were the first pick in the first round. Of course there are some striking exceptions. Sixth round pick Tom Brady won in 7 of 10 appearances, and fourth round pick Joe Montana won all four of his starts. Even so, the Quarterback is the most important position on any team in any sport, and the best Quarterbacks are traditionally selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.
Looking For Patrick
NFL front offices are feeling the heat to stack up their Quarterback Rooms with talent. So it wasn’t a shocker when six Quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the 2024 draft. That’s right, six! This matched the 1983 draft which was considered by many to be the greatest QB harvest in NFL history. The 1983 first round produced John Elway (#1 Broncos), Todd Blackledge (#7 Chiefs), Jim Kelly (#14 Bills), Tony Eason (#15 Patriots), Ken O’Brien (#24 Jets) and Dan Marino (#27 Dolphins). But those 6 were over 27 picks. All 6 of the 2024 QB class were taken in the first 12 picks!
It begs the question: are NFL teams inflating the value of quarterbacks coming out of college in a desperate play to find the next Patrick Mahomes? You know, the guy that has taken the Kansas City Chiefs to three of the past five Super Bowls? The QB that has won all three and in the process won all three Super Bowl MVP awards? In case you’ve forgotten Mahomes was taken in the 2017 draft by the Chiefs with the #10 pick in the first round. That suggests that five of the QBs in the 2024 first round were rated better than or equal to Patrick Mahomes!
I’m afraid that won’t prove out. Some NFL front offices are miscalculating talent and making bad investments.
What is the Passing Game Emphasis Doing to QB Salaries?
Along with investing high draft picks in the Quarterback position NFL teams are also investing big bucks to keep these premier assets. In this past off-season we have seen new contracts for Quarterbacks Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love. The young gun trio will all earn $55 million (tied for highest in the league) in 2024 and please note all three have yet to win their first Super Bowl.
As for Mahomes? Well, don’t feel badly for Patrick as he enters his second year of a 10-year $450 million deal. This is serious money, hell, NBA type money! See our Fast Facts page for a breakdown of the top 15 highest paid QBs in 2024.
What is the ROI on 1st Round Quarterbacks?
Well, it’s not a sure thing. The QBs from that 1983 first round combined for a total of ten Super Bowl appearances and won 59% of their combined career starts. Three, Elway, Kelly and Marino are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
But, the next highest loaded first round QB class between 1983 and 2024 would be the class of 2021 with 5 QBs in the top 15 picks. 2021 has not faired nearly as well as 1983. In fact, while Trevor Lawrence (#1 Jags) has just inked a new contract for $55 million, the other first rounders of Zach Wilson (#2 Jets), Trey Lance (#3 49ers), Justin Fields (#11 Bears), and Mac Jones (#15 Pats) have all failed to resign with their draft team. In fact these four QBs have all been traded (for much less value) in the past 8 months.
So drafting a Quarterback in the first round is not a sure thing. In fact, there is data to suggest it’s no better than a 50/50 gamble.
What are the Odds?
NFL Newsletter writer Mike Sando has come up with an interesting way to look at Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft. His approach is to evaluate QB value based on the ORDER in which the Quarterbacks are selected. His key analytic is the probability of the Quarterback to re-sign with his original draft team. The theory being a resigned QB is a successful QB. His findings suggest that Caleb Williams, the Bears #1 pick in the 2024 draft is twice as likely to resign with the Bears than any of the other first round QBs are likely to resign with their draft team.
In an analysis from 1993-2022 Sando studied 77 QBs selected in the first round. He found that the first Quarterback chosen across those 30 NFL drafts had a 57% resign rate with their draft team. So 16 first round picks resigned with their original team while 12 QBs did not resign. Note, there were two drafts without a first round QB. Additionally, 12 of the 16 resigns were the #1 pick in the draft. Which means only 4 of 10 resigned when they were not the #1 pick.
Adam Schefter of ESPN agrees. He also defines a Quarterback as being a “hit” if he resigns with his draft team. Schefter’s study of first round QBs from 2000-2019 has a “hit” rate of only 46%.
So while the first QB chosen has a 57% probability of resigning with his draft team, the 2nd Quarterback drafted has a 35% probability of resigning (only 8 of 23 in Sando’s study), the 3rd QB drafted has a 31% probability (5 of 16), and it’s a mere 14% (1 of 7) for the 4th QB drafted. And remember, these are all first round picks.
WOW… High stakes with sketchy odds!
So Where is the Risk in the 2024 QB Draft?
The above data begs the question: are these six Quarterbacks all that good, or are front offices inflating their value out of the pressure to stack their QB Rooms with talent? Time will tell, but there wasn’t one mock draft that had the six taken in the first 12 picks. In fact, there was plenty of discussion about Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy, and Bo Nix falling to round two. It would seem as though panic may have hit a few draft rooms.
The risk factor for these NFL teams is not just the success of the Quarterback, but also the cost of lost value in this draft slot if the QB doesn’t immediately make an impact.
The Green Bay Way
Ron Wolf, the former GM of the Green Bay Packers, may have been the first NFL front office guy to master the art of a seamless Quarterback succession plan. Consider: The Packers have had a total of three starting Quarterbacks since 1992. Three in 32 years!
Wolf wanted Brett Favre as his Quarterback in Green Bay. Favre, a second round pick of the Falcons out of Southern Miss was wasting away on the Falcons bench. In 1992 Wolf sent the Packers first round draft pick to Atlanta to close the deal. Kind of unprecedented, a #1 for a #2 with no game experience. But Wolf got his man and boy did Favre payoff big time. Brett Favre would play 20 years in the NFL with 18 as a Packer. He would set the NFL record for most consecutive games started at 321 and take the Pack to two Super Bowls and his career to the Hall of Fame.
But while Favre was still playing at an elite level, the Wolf successor, GM Ted Thompson, wanted to continue the Packers’ run of stability and elite play at the QB position. In the 2005 NFL Draft, and against popular opinion, he drafted Aaron Rodgers out of University of California with the 24th pick in the first round. Favre was not happy nor were Packers fans. But Thompson liked the idea of his next QB serving an internship under his current and soon to be Hall of Famer. Rogers would sit for three years under Favre until the Packers decided he was ready. So when Favre announced his retirement in 2008, but then rescinded on it, the Packers traded Favre to the Jets and the Rodgers era was launched.
Gutekunst Holds Steady
Fast forward to 2020 and the Packers’ newest GM, Brian Gutekunst. He had served under both Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, and also believed in the “Packers Way” of building a Quarterback succession plan while your current QB was still performing at an elite level. With Rodgers still in his prime, Gutekunst drafted Jordan Love out of Utah State with the 26th pick in the 2020 first round. Aaron Rodgers fumed when the Packers passed on a desperately needed wide receiver with the pick. The Packer fans once again were vocal with discord. Gutekunst took the heat and held his ground.
Jordan Love went to the bench for three years behind Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers would post back to back MVP years in two of those three seasons. But, like Favre, Rodgers wanted out and in 2023 the Packers accommodated him by trading yet another Hall of Fame Quarterback to… the Jets; fast becoming the graveyard for Packer Quarterbacks.
Where’s the Love?
In 2023 the Love era started in Green Bay. While the Pack started 3-6, the young team with their first-time starter matured over the season to Finnish 9-8 and make the playoffs. Love played spectacularly in his first playoff game throwing for thee TDs as the Packers beat the heavily favored Dallas Cowboys 48-32. The Packers were eliminated the following week in a hard fought 24-21 loss to the 49ers.
But the Jordan Love era has launched and as validation of the succession plan the Packers signed Jordan Love to a new four year contract extension worth $220 million ($55 mil ave) in July 2024.
The Biggest Gamblers in the 2024 Draft? The Atlanta Falcons
At first blush one might conclude that the Atlanta Falcons have embraced “The Packers Way” when building a new succession plan at Quarterback. With a new head coach, Raheem Morris, and a young GM, Terry Fontenot, the Falcons were aggressive in free agency and bagged the best QB available: Kirk Cousins. If not elite, Cousins has had a terrific 12 year career with Washington and most recently Minnesota. He has been consistently rated in the top 15 QBs over the past 6 or 7 years. He is a team-first guy who brings new dynamics to the Falcons’ offense and veteran stability in the locker room.
So, during the 2024 draft you can image the uproar when the Falcons invested the 8th pick in the first round on… a Quarterback! Michael Penix out of Washington. What? The franchise had just signed Cousins to a five year $180 million deal with $100 million guaranteed. True, Cousins is 35 and coming off a year where he injured his achilles in week 8 of the 2023 season. But at the time of his injury he was having a premier season and leading the league in many key categories. Plus, by all reports, his rehab is progressing well and he is on schedule to start week one of the 2024 season.
So maybe it’s a good hedge for the Falcons to give Michael Penix the same two or three years of internship that benefited both Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love?
Here’s the Rub
The key to “The Green Bay Way” was the fact that the Packers investment in Rodgers and Love were with picks LATE in the first round. At the 24th and the 26th picks of the first round you do not expect your Quarterback to start. It happens , but, it’s not the expectation. Also note both Rodgers and Love were 21 years old when drafted while Penix spent six years in college and is 24 with two ACL season-ending injuries in his history.
With the #8 pick in the draft, where Michael Penix was selected, you expect that player to start no matter the position. At the very least you expect that slot to make significant contributions in year one and the ensuing years. A team does not expect a #8 pick to sit for three years. The financial investment is significantly higher than the back end of the first round and the replacement cost on your roster is even more valuable.
The Falcon defense needs to put heat on the opposing QBs. They ranked 21st in total team sacks. The Falcons could use an edge rusher big time. The #8 pick would have bagged the best EDGE guy in the draft.
The Falcons Argument
The Falcons counter that with the Quarterback Room stocked up they now have a winning roster. And it is true the Falcons are VERY talented on the offensive side of the ball at QB, RB, WR, TE and even a maturing offensive line. They should score points and win games. With the success, the Falcons argue, they will no longer have a #8 pick in the draft for years to come. They saw what they think is their QB of the future so they grabbed him.
The counter to that argument is “The Green Bay Way” proves that you can identify and secure a future HOF QB in the lower first round slots while stocking more talent around him when you have the higher picks available.
Time Will Tell
Michael Penix was the 4th Quarterback picked in the 2024 draft. According to pundits from the NFL Newsletter and ESPN he should have about a 14% probability of resigning with the Falcons. Gulp! But guess who else was the 4th Quarterback chosen in his draft? Jordan Love. He just resigned for $55 million per…
If Kirk Cousins is injured (heaven forbid, I love this guy) the Falcons brass are genius. If Michael Penix is forced to play early and is brilliant then so is the front office. But if Penix sits for three years this was not a wise move. If he sits for a few years and never resigns it was not a good investment.
Only time will tell.